Political Risk Advisory Briefing: Turkey – March 2019

The latest Political Risk Advisory Briefing from KCS Group Europe focuses on Turkey.

The political and economic situation in Turkey is in a poor state of affairs. The first decade of this millennium witnessed a huge leap forward for the country, embodied by the construction boom and the creation of an urban middle-class. However, the rise of an authoritarian system has resulted in Turkey backsliding on all fronts. The decline in the value of the Lira – a symptom and not the cause, as many in Turkey claim – is the main obstacle for the many foreign companies active in Turkey, or those thinking of entering the market. The weakening of checks and balances simply compounds these issues, as does the instability on Turkey’s border with Syria.

The coup of 2016 and the ramifications of its failure has resulted in the disintegration and repression of any meaningful opposition. The new presidential system subsequent has sucked all state institutions and power bases into its grasp. Businesses should be painfully aware of the fact that their ability to operate in country could be curtailed at any time, as poor relations with the West could result in tit-for-tat retaliations and an arbitrary enforcement of rules that have thinly veiled motives, damaging interests and economic clout in the region. Looking ahead, it will be fascinating to see how Erdogan manages the disconnect between his foreign policies, domestic policies and the state of the Turkish economy. As with all leaders, no matter how consistent and strong the rhetoric is, if it affects living costs and standards his support will buckle.

Our report covers the areas of:-

Foreign affairs
Kurdistan, Syria and Terrorism
Economy & Business Environment

Based on selected Grey Area Dynamics Turkey has a possible risk rating of 4. To read the full report, please click here


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