It is a certainty that China will invade Taiwan – if one believes the dystopian near future predicted by Western leaders today. After all, surely the blame for all current serious political problems and tensions in the world are to be placed solely at the feet of Chinese and Russian governments intransigence for not acquiescing to the West’s demands. Now, they imply the leaders of these two rising powers have joined forces and are hellbent on taking over the planet or destroying it trying. Along with Western political leaders, the media is now in overdrive pushing fear and the prospect of war in the Asian region, but the real question is, does China even want to invade Taiwan or is it being goaded into it?
Undoubtedly, the U.S. Secretary of State, Anthony Blinken, would have the world believe Xi Jinping and the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) want war so much they must be seen as the biggest threat to world peace today. Blinken, however, is obviously attempting to ‘encourage’ the U.S. public to ‘feel the fear’ and accept the need for military involvement when the time comes, because war in the region is inevitable and hurtling towards them at break-neck speed. Just to add fuel to the fire, President Joe Biden has also said that the U.S. military will get involved if/when China decides to invade Taiwan.
It should be noted that the original – tacit – agreement in the ‘70s between the U.S. and China in relation to Taiwan was that the island would be to all intent and purpose, independent; the U.S. knew it, China knew it and Taiwan knew it, and as long as none of the parties said it out loud, thereby embarrassing the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) and forcing their hand, the status quo would remain. Taiwan has always been problematic for the CCP, given that its creation – politically – came about as a result of the democratic government having retreated to the island at the end of the civil war when the CCP took over seventy-four years ago. For China, the reunification of Taiwan is seen as the necessary closing of that event, needed for the ‘whole’ country to truly reach its potential. But it is not seen as a step that should be rushed and should only occur if Taiwan returns under its own volition. That has been the long-term goal for the CCP, unless outside events force its hand.
It should be noted that even though there are two political parties in Taiwan with differing public approaches to China, they are essentially fashioned to maintain a balance between the will of the people who desire independence on one side and the will of the people (and the CCP) on the other, who wish to see ‘reunification’ – “at some point”. This balance has helped maintain ‘face’ and the political peace for more than fifty years. So, what changed? One party broke the agreement: the U.S.
Interestingly, there is never mention of the intransigence that is ‘de rigueur’ for the Western leaders of today. If a country questions or does not follow the political narrative (read: U.S. foreign policy) in totality, that country is to be viewed with great suspicion at best or, at worst, “an enemy of democracy” itself. This can be evidenced by the aggressive way in which Western diplomacy addresses allies that don’t accept what they are being told to do or see the needs of their country outweighing the needs of the West’s desire. A perfect example of this ‘diplomacy-in-action’ is how the media and Western leaders have turned on India (and Modi in particular) because it continues to trade with Russia against the wishes of Western leaders.
A counter response can be seen for Japan, which has ‘gone all in’ with the U.S. and allies despite the island-nation’s extreme geographic vulnerability in the event of an invasion of Taiwan. Also, given the country’s rapidly declining population, it cannot afford to lose men of fighting age and is already close to the tipping point. There has not been one word of negativity for Japan from the media, despite it still buying oil from Russia as well. While Taiwan is armed to the teeth, funded, and supplied by the foreign policy of several U.S. administrations based on the premise that the Island presents an ‘unsinkable battleship’ just off the coast of China, Japan’s Prime Minister, Fumio Kishida, has said clearly that Japan would also get involved if there was an invasion. Additionally, he has agreed to effectively turn the country into a ‘second’ weapons platform (read target) offering an array of military equipment and men aimed at China.
Despite a large contingent of U.S. military personnel and equipment already in the country, Kishida is pushing hard for a massive military spending hike. As the cost of living is already high for the Japanese population, this is not a popular proposal and will, in fact, present a far bigger problem for Kishida politically. Even if he gets his bill passed, there is no possibility the country will be able to build an effective fighting force with any kind of battle experience in time to make a difference or for the equipment to be supplied. However, one thing is certain, if China wants to invade Taiwan, regardless of the fact Japan hosts U.S. military bases, Kishida’s declaration has pushed the country higher up the priority list of targets.
Indeed, the cost to all parties involved would be sufficiently high enough to render any plans in this endeavour so utterly pointless that any rational mind would dismiss it out of hand. Unfortunately, very few world leaders appear capable of grasping rationality or common sense for the time being.
Yet, despite the daily stream of ‘prepare for war’ messaging over Taiwan, cracks are appearing in the Western political and media narrative. Although China is so eager to invade Taiwan (we are told), it seems it will not do so yet. No, China – we are led to believe – will definitely do so either in 2025, 2027 or maybe 2030. In the end, it must be hoped that military action of any kind remains just a bad theory.
As can be seen, the threat of war over just one location in the world (Taiwan) being THE only advanced chip and semi-conductor manufacturer able to produce the world’s needs, places the entire world’s economies at the greatest risk seen in modern history. Just one of the major flaws with globalism.
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