Political Risk Advisory Briefing: Nigeria – January 2018

January 2018’s Political Risk Advisory Briefing from KCS Group Europe focuses on Nigeria, the most populous country in Africa, with a vast majority of the population being under 25. The country presents dichotomies.

The North and the South are deeply  separated, reflecting the religious beliefs, respectively Islam and Christianity; social inequality is high with the wealth concentrated in the hands of few; this leaves the vast majority of the population living in conditions of poverty.

Politics has also seen some interesting changes in the past few years. President Muhammadu Buhari, the first opposition candidate to win, was elected in 2015. His mandate will end in 2019, however it is unsure if he will re-run due to health problems, although no public statement has confirmed that. Nigerians believe he will not leave power and he will be re- elected for another mandate. A possible candidate in the scene could be Atiku Abubakar, previously vice president who recently joined the opposition People’s Democratic Party. A change is very unlikely.

Corruption remains highly embedded in the country, although Buhari publicly committed to tackling it. There is evidence of illegal appropriation of defence spending by government officials, diverting the resources away from their allocated purpose, fighting Boko Haram. There is no sign of Nigeria becoming more transparent and less corrupted, even in the case of a change of ruler.

– The endless fight of corruption
– Tribal disputes
– The threat to the oil industry
– The economic dependency on oil and prospects after a year of recession
– Boko Haram’s reign of terror
– The tech industry: a valuable alternative
– Investing in Nigeria
– Rating for Nigeria based on selected Grey Area Dynamics:
Corruption: 10
Bureaucracy: 6
Counterfeiting and theft: 5
Cultural issues: 7
Asset security: 6
Extremism: 4

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