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Georgia: The song remains the same

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As the fifteen-year anniversary of Vladimir Putin’s first attempt at recreating the Soviet Union approaches, the 2008 invasion of Georgia and the brief conflict that resulted needs to be reassessed: both as a military offensive on its own terms, and as part of a Kremlin grand strategy that has only intensified in the years since. [...]

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Iran: A sorry state

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Failed states are those unable to maintain economic or political credibility and in a virtual state of collapse, incapable to fulfil the functions of a national executive. Rogue states are those openly funding and supporting action with extreme prejudice that goes against the social contract of the supposedly peaceful world order and which thus choose

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Russian cold wars: It’s all Greek to me

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Timeo danaos et dona ferentes, runs the ancient maxim: Beware of Greeks bearing gifts. Today, we might update this to cavete a Graecis navibus navigantes – beware of Greeks sailing ships. Lloyds List has exposed, over the past six months, a fleet of tankers, registered in/owned by Greece and conducting operations in the waters of

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Divide and conquer: The Kremlin’s gambit

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Petrov’s Defence, known popularly as the Russian Game, is a chess opening based around symmetry: the second player matching the moves of the first through pawn, knight and so on, in a game that has a reputation for leading to protracted, difficult draws unless a player can seize upon a momentary advantage that may come

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Erdogan in Turkey: One last earthquake?

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Erdogan should be no stranger to seismology. This is, after all, the man who won ‘landslide’ victories in multiple Prime Ministerial and Presidential elections, the man whose Justice & Development party was heralded as shaking the foundations of Turkish civil society, the man who is no stranger to a political earthquake. Yet, last month’s devastating

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Getting all your ducks in a row

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The environment for winning and retaining business has rarely been more challenging. Most prominently, in geo-political terms, the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the knock-on effects on politics and economies worldwide. In addition, the rising tensions between China and Taiwan, an escalated war of words and ideology between various delineations of ‘East’ and ‘West’, and

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The magic black money tree

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While walking through the edge of Utah’s Fishlake Forest, it is possible to cross over 100 acres and simultaneously pass forty thousand trees, and just one. This is because the colony of Pando Aspen trunks (‘I spread’) share a single underground root system, with each apparently individual tree simply being part of a larger, hidden,

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Does China really want to go to war with Taiwan?

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It is a certainty that China will invade Taiwan - if one believes the dystopian near future predicted by Western leaders today. After all, surely the blame for all current serious political problems and tensions in the world are to be placed solely at the feet of Chinese and Russian governments intransigence for not acquiescing

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The day after the balloon went up

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Social media, intelligence services and diplomats alike are all currently poring over images (and debris) of suspected Chinese spy balloons shot down over the USA, with explanations ranging from the prosaic ‘weather balloon’ to ‘military surveillance drone’ – and it taking the White House eight days to formally rule out extra-terrestrial involvement. But while the

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Modi, Putin and the future of India: Does truth still triumph?

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If great minds think alike, then so too must great dictators. As the world emerged from pandemic lockdowns in December 2021, Russia’s President Putin made Narenda Modi of India the subject of only his second international visit in almost two years, and the first in a subsequent line of appearances in autocracies across Central Asia,

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