Russia

Sanctions and Secondary Risks: lessons from Russia, Iran and China

Originally aimed at punishing specific nations, sanctions have evolved into a tool for influencing global behaviour, particularly in high-stakes countries like Russia, China and Iran. With the increasing complications of international trade and finance, sanctions have, for some time, not been limited to direct penalties on the targeted countries; they now extend to businesses, their [...]

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The Rise of Economic Nationalism: how protectionist policies are ending globalism

Global trade’s share of economic output has decreased, while industrial policies focused on bolstering domestic industries are increasing, especially in wealthier countries. This change has since last year been dubbed "slowbalisation", signalling a slowdown in globalisation. However, rather than indicating a complete reversal, this shift reflects a growing emphasis on the protection of domestic industries,

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Western Sahara: unresolved claims and emerging risks

The protracted dispute over Western Sahara between Morocco and the Polisario Front comes with challenges for multinational corporations in North Africa. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved, with sporadic fighting and a stalled peace process, raising fears of renewed violence. Recent developments have made matters worse. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the

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Savings and Sanctions: Indonesia lured by Russian oil

With its recent entry into BRICS offering Indonesia closer ties with Russia, the potential import of discounted Russian oil presents a double-edged sword with both an opportunity and a conundrum. The appeal is clear: Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, and National Economic Council Chair, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, have calculated savings of up to US$22 per barrel,

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Sudan on the brink: a civil war and those profiting

The brutal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has plunged Sudan deep into humanitarian crisis, marked by staggering loss of life and mass displacement. Death tolls are now nearing 150,000, and millions have been forced from their homes. The scale of suffering reported is immense. International involvement is

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Hybrid Warfare – the coordinated efforts of Russia and China against the West

Russia and China are conducting hybrid warfare campaigns against Western nations, leveraging a blend of conventional military assets and non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, and exploitation of political and legal systems. These efforts aim to destabilise and weaken adversaries from within. Russia has been intensifying its sabotage campaigns across the EU, reflecting a

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Nagorno-Karabakh has fallen: Russia’s silent role

The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has escalated exponentially over years. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russian peacekeepers. This offensive resulted in the profound dissolution of the Artsakh Defense Army and the

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Balkans Battlegrounds: external influences and internal divisions

In the multi-faceted geopolitical landscape of the Balkans, the unresolved sovereignty dispute between Serbia and Kosovo - coupled with Bosnia's internal disagreements - pose substantial risks for multinational corporations. Kosovo’s recent actions to close border crossings in response to protests and new Serbian legislation, emphasise the on-going volatility in the region. These events reflect deep-seated

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Two’s company, three’s a crowd

Recent developments have identified an escalation of alliances, with North Korean (NK) premier, Kim Jong Un, bolstering Vladimir Putin’s military capability by providing much-needed arms and personnel supplies for their war against Ukraine. This enhanced collaboration not only reveals a greater bond between NK and Russia, but it also presents a subtle challenge within the

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BRICS 2024: Expansion and the great de-dollarisation debate

At the recent BRICS summit hosted in Kazan, Russia, the bloc not only expanded its influence by welcoming new full members Iran, Ethiopia and the UAE, but it also extended invitations to thirteen additional ‘partner countries’. This activity reflects BRICS’s growing status in geopolitics. However, beneath the veil of this expansion lies a contentious issue:

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