Due Diligence

The Turkey threat: Israel, Syria and the edge of conflict

Turkey’s emergence as a primary strategic concern for Israel is no longer confined to diplomatic disputes or rhetorical clashes. Increasingly, Israeli political and military circles are presenting Ankara as a long-term structural threat within the changing architecture of the Middle East. Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s increasingly confrontational posture toward Israel, combined with Ankara’s efforts [...]

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Turkey, Russia and China’s ungainly relations

Europe’s political class has once again found itself in a state of anxious overreaction, this time sparked by comments from European Commission President, Ursula von der Leyen, that appeared to place Turkey in the same geopolitical category as Russia and China. The diplomatic tremors that followed were revealing not because they exposed some new strategic

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AI is not the God button

People from all industry sectors question the integrity of AI based on their own experience and use cases. However, with these opinions, there are so many different variables it is quite honestly disturbing. For starters, AI is not one instance sitting in the hardware clouds like a mega all-encompassing brain. There are hundreds, if not

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A converging theatre: Iran, Venezuela and the quiet realignment of power

What has unfolded in Iran over the past five weeks cannot be understood in isolation. The mass protests, economic collapse and subsequent military escalation form part of a broader pattern that echoes earlier events in Venezuela. Both nations, deeply embedded in global energy markets and historically resistant to US influence, have faced internal destabilisation amid

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Insecurity, Uncertainty and Indecision

The British government is not facing the risk of failure, it is already there. Insecurity at the top, uncertainty in policy and indecision in execution are not emerging trends but defining characteristics of the current administration. They are visible across foreign policy, public finances, resource allocation and defence, all reinforced by a Cabinet that lacks

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Politics be damned

This is no longer about Ukraine. It is about trajectory. The UK and EU leaders are driving their nations to a point where economic fragility, political fragmentation and strategic overreach will meet like a train crash. The continued rhetoric of open-ended confrontation with Russia may play well in chambers and summits, but the negative consequences

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China and the Power of One

China’s political direction since Donald Trump first entered the White House has often been described as reactive; a series of responses to tariffs, technology controls and diplomatic pressure. In reality, Beijing’s trajectory has been shaped less by Washington’s personalities than by a deeper conclusion reached within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), that the era of

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Canada’s strategic crossroads: navigating between Washington and Beijing

The environment that supported Canadian foreign policy since the end of the Cold War is fragmenting, with power politics returning to the centre of international relations and economic policy increasingly tied to strategic competition. Prime Minister Mark Carney’s speech at the World Economic Forum (WEF) reflected this assessment, arguing that the global governance framework is

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The US, EU and the UK: defence or destruction?

Transatlantic relations are entering a period of visible tension as political, economic and strategic pressures converge across the US, the EU and the UK. President Donald Trump’s return to office has accelerated these stresses rather than created them, exposing structural weaknesses that had been masked by habit, shared rhetoric and institutional inertia. Nowhere is this

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The age of strategic fatigue: why great powers are running out of appetite, not capability

At first glance, the global system appears more militarised and confrontational than at any point since the late Cold War; no surprise there with some 60 major conflicts affecting life and limb around the world as we speak. While this is underway, defence budgets are expanding across NATO, East Asia, the Middle East and Russia,

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