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Why Turkey and Erdogan are now the centre of Trump’s attention

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President Trump effectively said it himself. He went to Ankara to see President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan and made clear that he would not have made the journey for most other leaders. He also said plainly that he stood with Turkey. Those remarks matter because they reveal that the NATO summit itself was almost just a [...]

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The war before the mid-terms: red flags for America’s political future

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The US is moving toward the mid-term elections under conditions that no longer look like normal democratic competition. Abroad, the Ukraine war is being pushed into a new phase, Iran is an on-again-off-again switch remaining a live trigger point, China is testing missiles while using minerals and diplomacy to test the Indo-Pacific order, and energy

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The collapse of the old order: Europe’s political crisis and the rise of strategic realignment

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The geopolitical assumptions that defined the post-Cold War era are rapidly disintegrating. Across Europe, traditional political parties are collapsing under the weight of public frustration, while NATO struggles to adapt to the realities of modern warfare exposed by Ukraine. At the same time, the media environment that once sustained Western consensus politics is fragmenting as

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Warfare by any other name?

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For years, European officials have spoken about “hybrid warfare” as though it were a future threat. It is not. It is already embedded in the political and economic landscape of the continent, and has been raging for years. Hybrid warfare does not begin with tanks crossing borders. It begins with ambiguity. It operates in the

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The US, EU and the UK: defence or destruction?

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Transatlantic relations are entering a period of visible tension as political, economic and strategic pressures converge across the US, the EU and the UK. President Donald Trump’s return to office has accelerated these stresses rather than created them, exposing structural weaknesses that had been masked by habit, shared rhetoric and institutional inertia. Nowhere is this

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The age of strategic fatigue: why great powers are running out of appetite, not capability

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At first glance, the global system appears more militarised and confrontational than at any point since the late Cold War; no surprise there with some 60 major conflicts affecting life and limb around the world as we speak. While this is underway, defence budgets are expanding across NATO, East Asia, the Middle East and Russia,

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Is the EU at war with the US or with itself?

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The claim that the EU is “at war” with the US sounds hyperbolic at first glance. Washington remains Europe’s principal security guarantor, its largest external trading partner and (through NATO) the backbone of continental defence. Yet, beneath the formal architecture of alliance, a more corrosive dynamic has emerged. Policy choices taken in Brussels and several

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ARC and the powers determined to stop it

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For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the world’s three largest powers (the US, Russia and China) are showing signs of drifting into a pragmatic triangular balance. It is not an alliance, and it is not ideological. It is, instead, the product of converging interests. Quiet US-Russia communications on energy and

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Balkans Battlegrounds: external influences and internal divisions

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In the multi-faceted geopolitical landscape of the Balkans, the unresolved sovereignty dispute between Serbia and Kosovo - coupled with Bosnia's internal disagreements - pose substantial risks for multinational corporations. Kosovo’s recent actions to close border crossings in response to protests and new Serbian legislation, emphasise the on-going volatility in the region. These events reflect deep-seated

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The Bulgarian 2024 Elections

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The next Bulgarian elections, scheduled for 9 June 2024, will be a turning point in the country’s democracy. The results of these elections will affect not only domestic policy but also international relations, with emphasis on the European Union (EU) and NATO. Backstage there are, however, rising geopolitical tensions and shifts, such as the two-year

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