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The Tripolar Era: Trump’s bold moves, Xi’s strategy, and Europe’s fight for relevance

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The world economy is entering a new era - one in which power is increasingly divided among three major continental blocs: the US, China and Europe. No longer a uni-polar world under post-Cold War US hegemony, the current landscape is defined by conflicting regulatory frameworks, trade policies and geopolitical ambitions. At the forefront of these [...]

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Maximum Pressure – the USA’s stance in the Middle East

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In his second term, President Donald Trump has embarked on a series of assertive foreign policy shifts that are reshaping US engagement with the Middle East. Emphasising an "America First" agenda, the administration has adopted a more unilateral approach, re-evaluating traditional alliances and international commitments. ​A notable aspect of this strategy is the intensified ‘maximum

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Breaking out: Is Syria’s Hayat Tahrir al-Sham moving away from Jihad and Sharia law?

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As Syria’s new Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) led-government tentatively explores governance away from jihad and strict Sharia law, the reactions from extremist factions have been notably severe and revealing. Sami al-'Uraydi, leader of Syria's Tanzim Hurras al-Din (sometimes referred to as Al-Qaeda in Syria), has vocally opposed any deviation from Sharia, embodying a "Sharia or

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Hybrid Warfare II – the forgotten social engineers

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The over-emphasis on cyber threats in modern warfare and corporate espionage has created a false sense of security, often sidelining traditional methods like human intelligence (HUMINT). While cyber tactics, such as hacking and malware deployment, remain effective, social engineering techniques are still very much in use by both state and commercial actors to gather intelligence.

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Sanctions and Secondary Risks: lessons from Russia, Iran and China

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Originally aimed at punishing specific nations, sanctions have evolved into a tool for influencing global behaviour, particularly in high-stakes countries like Russia, China and Iran. With the increasing complications of international trade and finance, sanctions have, for some time, not been limited to direct penalties on the targeted countries; they now extend to businesses, their

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The Rise of Economic Nationalism: how protectionist policies are ending globalism

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Global trade’s share of economic output has decreased, while industrial policies focused on bolstering domestic industries are increasing, especially in wealthier countries. This change has since last year been dubbed "slowbalisation", signalling a slowdown in globalisation. However, rather than indicating a complete reversal, this shift reflects a growing emphasis on the protection of domestic industries,

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Western Sahara: unresolved claims and emerging risks

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The protracted dispute over Western Sahara between Morocco and the Polisario Front comes with challenges for multinational corporations in North Africa. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved, with sporadic fighting and a stalled peace process, raising fears of renewed violence. Recent developments have made matters worse. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the

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Savings and Sanctions: Indonesia lured by Russian oil

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With its recent entry into BRICS offering Indonesia closer ties with Russia, the potential import of discounted Russian oil presents a double-edged sword with both an opportunity and a conundrum. The appeal is clear: Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, and National Economic Council Chair, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, have calculated savings of up to US$22 per barrel,

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What drives FDI in the Asia Pacific Region?

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The Asia Pacific region is witnessing economic growth despite the ongoing tensions between China and the smaller Asian nations in the South China Sea. Countries such as Cambodia, Vietnam, the Philippines and Singapore are experiencing a surge in foreign direct investment (FDI) from nations including Australia, Germany, Spain and the US. Investment is particularly noticeable

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Sudan on the brink: a civil war and those profiting

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The brutal conflict between the Sudanese Armed Forces (SAF) and the Rapid Support Forces (RSF) has plunged Sudan deep into humanitarian crisis, marked by staggering loss of life and mass displacement. Death tolls are now nearing 150,000, and millions have been forced from their homes. The scale of suffering reported is immense. International involvement is

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