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On Top of the World: Brazil’s business boom amid green horizons

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After two years of turbulence, Brazil enters mid-2025 on firmer economic footing. Real GDP expanded 3.4 percent in 2024 - its best since the pandemic - driven by household spending and a rebound in capital formation. Momentum is moderating as tighter policy grinds, yet consensus still pegs 2025 growth above two percent and expects inflation [...]

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Turkish Tales: why investors are looking again at Turkey

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After an eighteen-month monetary overhaul, Ankara is finally putting a lid on the price spiral that peaked above 70 percent last spring. The OECD’s April survey notes that, provided interest rates remain restrictive and fiscal discipline holds, consumer inflation should sink to single digits by 2027, bringing Turkey back within striking distance of its long-forgotten

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Vietnam’s quiet rise amid global realignment

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Since 2007 when Vietnam joined the World Trade Organisation (WTO), this Southeast Asian nation has produced seven-fold straight growth up to 2022 in imports and exports combined. There was a drop of 6.6% in 2023 due to lower demand in exports from the US and EU, but that demand quickly recovered by 2024. That Vietnam

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Kazakhstan: The Eurasian Trade Pivot

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Kazakhstan enters mid-2025 in a somewhat different position from previous years. The economy is showing signs of stable growth, with the World Bank projecting GDP expansion driven by non-oil sectors, and revived investor interest. Inflation has eased, and fiscal buffers have been replenished following earlier shocks from the pandemic and energy price volatility. While hydrocarbons

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China’s Opportunities: Western partners and allies

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The evolving rift between Washington and Beijing is reshaping international trade and diplomacy. As the United States promotes a strategy of "de-risking" from China, aimed at reducing economic exposure without complete disengagement, Beijing is reinforcing its position as a necessary global partner. China continues to be as open for business as ever, offering investment opportunities

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Climbing High: India’s role in rewriting global supply chains

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India entered 2025 maintaining its status as one of the world's few high-growth economies, but when one peers beneath this encouraging data, the outlook is one of resilience and restraint. While government spending continues to drive infrastructure expansion and consumer demand remains steady, the momentum in private sector investment has not kept pace. According to

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Tariffs – opportunities amid the chaos?

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On the back of President Trump’s tariff announcement (“Independence Day”), a massive dive across the world’s stock markets drove panic to huge levels. But was that panic really necessary? So many experts have claimed for years that trade tariffs were the worst thing a country could possibly do against its own economy, yet, if the

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The Tripolar Era: Trump’s bold moves, Xi’s strategy, and Europe’s fight for relevance

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The world economy is entering a new era - one in which power is increasingly divided among three major continental blocs: the US, China and Europe. No longer a uni-polar world under post-Cold War US hegemony, the current landscape is defined by conflicting regulatory frameworks, trade policies and geopolitical ambitions. At the forefront of these

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Sanctions and Secondary Risks: lessons from Russia, Iran and China

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Originally aimed at punishing specific nations, sanctions have evolved into a tool for influencing global behaviour, particularly in high-stakes countries like Russia, China and Iran. With the increasing complications of international trade and finance, sanctions have, for some time, not been limited to direct penalties on the targeted countries; they now extend to businesses, their

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The Rise of Economic Nationalism: how protectionist policies are ending globalism

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Global trade’s share of economic output has decreased, while industrial policies focused on bolstering domestic industries are increasing, especially in wealthier countries. This change has since last year been dubbed "slowbalisation", signalling a slowdown in globalisation. However, rather than indicating a complete reversal, this shift reflects a growing emphasis on the protection of domestic industries,

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