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Geopolitics

The Rise of Economic Nationalism: how protectionist policies are ending globalism

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Global trade’s share of economic output has decreased, while industrial policies focused on bolstering domestic industries are increasing, especially in wealthier countries. This change has since last year been dubbed "slowbalisation", signalling a slowdown in globalisation. However, rather than indicating a complete reversal, this shift reflects a growing emphasis on the protection of domestic industries, [...]

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Western Sahara: unresolved claims and emerging risks

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The protracted dispute over Western Sahara between Morocco and the Polisario Front comes with challenges for multinational corporations in North Africa. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved, with sporadic fighting and a stalled peace process, raising fears of renewed violence. Recent developments have made matters worse. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the

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Savings and Sanctions: Indonesia lured by Russian oil

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With its recent entry into BRICS offering Indonesia closer ties with Russia, the potential import of discounted Russian oil presents a double-edged sword with both an opportunity and a conundrum. The appeal is clear: Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, and National Economic Council Chair, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, have calculated savings of up to US$22 per barrel,

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Hybrid Warfare – the coordinated efforts of Russia and China against the West

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Russia and China are conducting hybrid warfare campaigns against Western nations, leveraging a blend of conventional military assets and non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, and exploitation of political and legal systems. These efforts aim to destabilise and weaken adversaries from within. Russia has been intensifying its sabotage campaigns across the EU, reflecting a

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Ethiopia’s Fractured State: The fragile path forward

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While the world’s media has largely focused on Ethiopia’s Tigray conflict, unrest in Oromia (Central Ethiopia) and other regions reveals the scale of volatility within the country. Oromia, Ethiopia's largest region, has been the scene of ethnic tensions, driven by longstanding grievances over political sidelining, unequal resource allocation and land rights. The Oromo Liberation Army

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The South China Sea: Is there a compromise?

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The South China Sea remains a focal point of strategic and territorial dispute, principally involving China and neighbouring ASEAN member countries like the Philippines, Vietnam, Malaysia and Indonesia. This region, crucial for international shipping and its wealth of natural resources, witnesses frequent disputes that have the potential to escalate into greater regional conflict. China's assertive

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Nagorno-Karabakh has fallen: Russia’s silent role

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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has escalated exponentially over years. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russian peacekeepers. This offensive resulted in the profound dissolution of the Artsakh Defense Army and the

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Prisons of Power: the Sahel insurgency worsens

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The on-going insurgency in the Sahel region, traditionally seen in Mali and Burkina Faso, is experiencing a notable expansion, potentially threatening the stability of neighbours Ghana and Benin. This increased geographic spread is partly influenced by the presence of Russia's GRU controlled 'Africa Corps’, which is the new umbrella organisation encompassing the Wagner Group infantry,

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Balkans Battlegrounds: external influences and internal divisions

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In the multi-faceted geopolitical landscape of the Balkans, the unresolved sovereignty dispute between Serbia and Kosovo - coupled with Bosnia's internal disagreements - pose substantial risks for multinational corporations. Kosovo’s recent actions to close border crossings in response to protests and new Serbian legislation, emphasise the on-going volatility in the region. These events reflect deep-seated

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Breaking point in the Northern Triangle – Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador

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Central America’s Northern Triangle consisting of Guatemala, Honduras and El Salvador (with a total of 9.2 million people) is grappling with relentless political upheaval and unrest. This not only impinges on domestic conditions but also seriously impacts international migration figures and foreign policy. The region's strategic importance, due to its proximity to major trade routes

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