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Politics be damned

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This is no longer about Ukraine. It is about trajectory. The UK and EU leaders are driving their nations to a point where economic fragility, political fragmentation and strategic overreach will meet like a train crash. The continued rhetoric of open-ended confrontation with Russia may play well in chambers and summits, but the negative consequences [...]

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China and the Power of One

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China’s political direction since Donald Trump first entered the White House has often been described as reactive; a series of responses to tariffs, technology controls and diplomatic pressure. In reality, Beijing’s trajectory has been shaped less by Washington’s personalities than by a deeper conclusion reached within the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), that the era of

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The US, EU and the UK: defence or destruction?

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Transatlantic relations are entering a period of visible tension as political, economic and strategic pressures converge across the US, the EU and the UK. President Donald Trump’s return to office has accelerated these stresses rather than created them, exposing structural weaknesses that had been masked by habit, shared rhetoric and institutional inertia. Nowhere is this

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Is the EU at war with the US or with itself?

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The claim that the EU is “at war” with the US sounds hyperbolic at first glance. Washington remains Europe’s principal security guarantor, its largest external trading partner and (through NATO) the backbone of continental defence. Yet, beneath the formal architecture of alliance, a more corrosive dynamic has emerged. Policy choices taken in Brussels and several

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ARC and the powers determined to stop it

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For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the world’s three largest powers (the US, Russia and China) are showing signs of drifting into a pragmatic triangular balance. It is not an alliance, and it is not ideological. It is, instead, the product of converging interests. Quiet US-Russia communications on energy and

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The end of the Global South? A fragmenting bloc with no common interests

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The term Global South has served as diplomatic shorthand for a loose coalition of developing states seeking greater voice in a world dominated by Western institutions and norms. The label implied shared grievances and converging interests, suggesting that formerly marginalised regions could act collectively to reshape global governance. Today, however, this narrative is increasingly hard

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The Birth of a Tri-polarity: ARC (America-Russia-China)

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Over several months, a subtle but potentially significant geopolitical realignment has been unfolding. Less and less is being discussed publicly about BRICS, while quiet discussions are getting a little louder about the possibility of a de facto tripolar system among the US, Russia and China. This emergent formation (some geopolitics analysts are now calling it ARC) is not

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Europe’s push for rare earth magnet production: can it wean off China?

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Europe’s debut into large-scale rare-earth magnet manufacturing via the newly opened plant in Narva, Estonia, is a bold signal. Backed by EU funds and Canadian Export Credit Agency loans, this facility represents a strategic effort to break China’s long-standing stranglehold on critical magnet supply chains. But as promising as that may seem, the road to

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Poland’s call to end Russian oil by 2026: cascade effects in the EU

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Poland’s call for the EU to end all imports of Russian oil by the end of 2026 represents one of the most assertive energy policy positions to emerge from within the bloc since the invasion of Ukraine. Warsaw’s call is rooted in a conviction that economic links to Moscow continue to undermine Europe’s geopolitical security

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Japan, US: a golden age?

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When Sanae Takaichi was elected as Japan’s first female prime minister on 21 October, many observers were quick to raise scepticism and criticism. But taking a step back from the usual negative-narrative lens reveals a number of real indicators that Japan might be entering a much more dynamic era; one in which strong leadership, a

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