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Sanctions and Secondary Risks: lessons from Russia, Iran and China

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Originally aimed at punishing specific nations, sanctions have evolved into a tool for influencing global behaviour, particularly in high-stakes countries like Russia, China and Iran. With the increasing complications of international trade and finance, sanctions have, for some time, not been limited to direct penalties on the targeted countries; they now extend to businesses, their [...]

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Western Sahara: unresolved claims and emerging risks

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The protracted dispute over Western Sahara between Morocco and the Polisario Front comes with challenges for multinational corporations in North Africa. Despite international efforts, the conflict remains unresolved, with sporadic fighting and a stalled peace process, raising fears of renewed violence. Recent developments have made matters worse. The United Nations Security Council (UNSC) extended the

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Savings and Sanctions: Indonesia lured by Russian oil

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With its recent entry into BRICS offering Indonesia closer ties with Russia, the potential import of discounted Russian oil presents a double-edged sword with both an opportunity and a conundrum. The appeal is clear: Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, and National Economic Council Chair, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, have calculated savings of up to US$22 per barrel,

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Hybrid Warfare – the coordinated efforts of Russia and China against the West

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Russia and China are conducting hybrid warfare campaigns against Western nations, leveraging a blend of conventional military assets and non-military tactics, including cyberattacks, disinformation, economic pressure, and exploitation of political and legal systems. These efforts aim to destabilise and weaken adversaries from within. Russia has been intensifying its sabotage campaigns across the EU, reflecting a

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Nagorno-Karabakh has fallen: Russia’s silent role

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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has escalated exponentially over years. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russian peacekeepers. This offensive resulted in the profound dissolution of the Artsakh Defense Army and the

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Balkans Battlegrounds: external influences and internal divisions

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In the multi-faceted geopolitical landscape of the Balkans, the unresolved sovereignty dispute between Serbia and Kosovo - coupled with Bosnia's internal disagreements - pose substantial risks for multinational corporations. Kosovo’s recent actions to close border crossings in response to protests and new Serbian legislation, emphasise the on-going volatility in the region. These events reflect deep-seated

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Two’s company, three’s a crowd

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Recent developments have identified an escalation of alliances, with North Korean (NK) premier, Kim Jong Un, bolstering Vladimir Putin’s military capability by providing much-needed arms and personnel supplies for their war against Ukraine. This enhanced collaboration not only reveals a greater bond between NK and Russia, but it also presents a subtle challenge within the

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Aegean Shadows: the battle for blue gold in the Eastern Mediterranean

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The Eastern Mediterranean region, known for vast natural gas reserves and contentious maritime boundaries, is the subject of recent concerning geopolitical discourse. Interaction between Turkey, Greece and Cyprus reveals a wider narrative of regional muscle flexing and financial gain. These three countries, each with vested interests and historical claims, boarder maritime sea channels that have

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India among superpowers: what is its geopolitical role?

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India is recognised as a growing power in global politics. Its rise is not simply due to economic growth but also its deft ability to handle present-day international diplomacy. The country’s key strength is its capability to both maintain and leverage relationships with world leaders and regional actors. This includes improving ties with the US

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Disinformation in Moldova: attempts to destabilise and disrupt Europe

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Moldova is enduring a disinformation and propaganda campaign from Russia, which is attempting to destabilise and disrupt societies across Europe. While in the past Russia has used economic pressure, concocted protests, cyber-attacks and energy blackmail to target Moldova, it has increasingly turned towards disinformation and propaganda as the weapons of choice. Russian-backed efforts are ramping

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