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Sanctions

Central Asia: from sanctions to strategy

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Kazakhstan is moving the fastest. Construction is under way on the new Darbaza-Maktaaral rail link to Uzbekistan (US$523 million) and a second track on the Dostyk-Moiynty section to lift China-Europe capacity five-fold by 2027. At the Caspian end, Aktau will add a 200,000 TEU container hub by 2025 for just US$42 million, while Kuryk gains [...]

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Kazakhstan: The Eurasian Trade Pivot

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Kazakhstan enters mid-2025 in a somewhat different position from previous years. The economy is showing signs of stable growth, with the World Bank projecting GDP expansion driven by non-oil sectors, and revived investor interest. Inflation has eased, and fiscal buffers have been replenished following earlier shocks from the pandemic and energy price volatility. While hydrocarbons

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Maximum Pressure – the USA’s stance in the Middle East

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In his second term, President Donald Trump has embarked on a series of assertive foreign policy shifts that are reshaping US engagement with the Middle East. Emphasising an "America First" agenda, the administration has adopted a more unilateral approach, re-evaluating traditional alliances and international commitments. ​A notable aspect of this strategy is the intensified ‘maximum

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Sanctions and Secondary Risks: lessons from Russia, Iran and China

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Originally aimed at punishing specific nations, sanctions have evolved into a tool for influencing global behaviour, particularly in high-stakes countries like Russia, China and Iran. With the increasing complications of international trade and finance, sanctions have, for some time, not been limited to direct penalties on the targeted countries; they now extend to businesses, their

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Savings and Sanctions: Indonesia lured by Russian oil

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With its recent entry into BRICS offering Indonesia closer ties with Russia, the potential import of discounted Russian oil presents a double-edged sword with both an opportunity and a conundrum. The appeal is clear: Energy Minister, Bahlil Lahadalia, and National Economic Council Chair, Luhut Binsar Pandjaitan, have calculated savings of up to US$22 per barrel,

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Nagorno-Karabakh has fallen: Russia’s silent role

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The Nagorno-Karabakh conflict, a longstanding territorial dispute between Armenia and Azerbaijan, has escalated exponentially over years. In September 2023, Azerbaijan launched a military offensive against the self-declared Republic of Artsakh in Nagorno-Karabakh, leading to a ceasefire agreement brokered by Russian peacekeepers. This offensive resulted in the profound dissolution of the Artsakh Defense Army and the

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Dubai uncovered – a safe haven for criminals?

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The United Arab Emirates (UAE), a major player in regional and global markets, is famed for its exponential economic growth and strategic location. Sitting alongside seven other emirates, Dubai is the most prominent member, managing to break free from the oil rich dependent roots, for which it is historically known, to now being a dynamic

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‘Silent Partners’ Part 2 – organised crime’s black market activities

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A troubling and complex issue has emerged in response to the US-led sanctions on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine. Organised crime groups (OCGs), driven by their relentless pursuit of profit, have found fertile ground in evading these sanctions, resulting in a cascade of effects felt across the globe. This is Part 2 of an

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‘Silent Partners’ – organised crime’s profitable collaboration with sanctioned regimes

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Three decades after the conclusion of Cold War 1.0, the global stage is witnessing an unsettling revival of Cold War dynamics and tensions. The fall of the Soviet Union in 1991 was supposed to mark the start of a new era. However, relations between the United States of America, Russia, China, Ukraine, Iran, North Korea,

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The EU: House of Cards?

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The gloss of the EU utopian ideal has well and truly tarnished. The EU-project has now come to mean very different things to different people. The Union now covers 27 countries, a combined population of around 447 million and a hugely diverse mix of cultures, nationalities, and social and economic circumstances. A white-collar worker in

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