Geopolitics – KCS Group Asia Ltd

Is the EU at war with the US or with itself?

Articles / Due Diligence, Europe, European Union, Geopolitics, global energy security, Global trade, Industrial, International Security, NATO, political instability, risks, Russia, USA / 12/2025

The claim that the EU is “at war” with the US sounds hyperbolic at first glance. Washington remains Europe’s principal security guarantor, its largest external trading partner and (through NATO) the backbone of continental defence. Yet, beneath the formal architecture of alliance, a more corrosive dynamic has emerged. Policy choices taken in Brussels and several [...]

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ARC and the powers determined to stop it

Articles / China, Due Diligence, energy markets, Europe, exports, Geopolitics, Global trade, NATO, risks, Russia, Sanctions, tariffs, Technology, trade relations, United Kingdom, USA / 12/2025

For the first time since the end of the Cold War, the world’s three largest powers (the US, Russia and China) are showing signs of drifting into a pragmatic triangular balance. It is not an alliance, and it is not ideological. It is, instead, the product of converging interests. Quiet US-Russia communications on energy and

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The end of the Global South? A fragmenting bloc with no common interests

Articles / Africa, Asia, Due Diligence, Economy, Geopolitics, global governance, Global South, Latin America, manufacturing, Middle East, political instability, risks, supply chains, trade relations / 12/2025

The term Global South has served as diplomatic shorthand for a loose coalition of developing states seeking greater voice in a world dominated by Western institutions and norms. The label implied shared grievances and converging interests, suggesting that formerly marginalised regions could act collectively to reshape global governance. Today, however, this narrative is increasingly hard

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The Birth of a Tri-polarity: ARC (America-Russia-China)

Articles / China, Due Diligence, energy markets, exports, Geopolitics, risks, Russia, Sanctions, tariffs, Technology, trade relations, United States of America, US-China trade / 11/2025

Over several months, a subtle but potentially significant geopolitical realignment has been unfolding. Less and less is being discussed publicly about BRICS, while quiet discussions are getting a little louder about the possibility of a de facto tripolar system among the US, Russia and China. This emergent formation (some geopolitics analysts are now calling it ARC) is not

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Europe’s push for rare earth magnet production: can it wean off China?

Articles / Canada, China, Due Diligence, Estonia, Europe, Geopolitics, minerals, rare earth magnet, risks, supply chains / 11/2025

Europe’s debut into large-scale rare-earth magnet manufacturing via the newly opened plant in Narva, Estonia, is a bold signal. Backed by EU funds and Canadian Export Credit Agency loans, this facility represents a strategic effort to break China’s long-standing stranglehold on critical magnet supply chains. But as promising as that may seem, the road to

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AI’s Energy Appetite: can the world’s grids keep up?

Articles / affordable energy, AI, digital age, Due Diligence, energy markets, energy supply, Geopolitics, Infrastructure, renewal energy, risks, Technology / 10/2025

The rapid ascent of artificial intelligence has been nothing short of revolutionary. AI systems are reshaping everything from healthcare to finance, promising to accelerate productivity and innovation at an unprecedented scale. Yet, this digital transformation is built on an increasingly fragile physical foundation: the availability of reliable and affordable energy. As machine learning models expand

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Supply Chains and Sovereignty: the rising trend of localisation vs globalisation

Articles / Asia Pacific, China, Due Diligence, European Union, Geopolitics, Global trade, manufacturing, risks, supply chains, USA / 10/2025

In the past, the logic behind global supply chains was deceptively simple: source components where they were cheapest, assemble products where production was most efficient/ economical, and sell where demand was strongest. This model, refined over decades, essentially prioritised cost and scale above nearly all other considerations. Yet, in recent years, geopolitical pressures, technological competition

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Difficult Decisions: infrastructure choices, payments, sanctions and alternative networks

Articles / currency, Due Diligence, financial governance, Geopolitics, global payments, payment networks, risks, Sanctions, US-China trade / 09/2025

Cross-border payments for the most part still run on SWIFT and old-school correspondent banking, but rules are now forcing banks to go real time. Since 9 January 2025, EU banks have been required to receive euro instant payments within 10 seconds, 24/7. By this October, they also need to be able to send them. That

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Building Blocks – Suriname’s Emerging Offshore Oil Sector

Articles / China, Due Diligence, Europe, Geopolitics, GranMorgu, Guyana, Malaysia, offshore, Oil, Staatsolie, Suriname, TotalEnergies, USA / 09/2025

Suriname is moving from frontier to pre-producer. TotalEnergies and APA’s October 2024 Final Investment Decision (FID) on Block 58 means it planned to start producing first oil in 2028, shifting attention from exploration to execution risk and market access. Staatsolie’s role and consolidation, reinforced by TotalEnergies’ entry into Block 53 in mid-2025, provide scale and

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Corridors or Chokepoints – the infrastructure bet driving Ethiopia’s future

Articles / Africa, China, Denmark, Due Diligence, Economy, energy supply, Ethiopia, European Union, Foreign investment, Geopolitics, Infrastructure, risks, Saudi, trade corridor, UAE / 08/2025

Although the Pretoria accord halted open warfare, Ethiopia’s political temperature has begun to rise again. Rival factions inside the Tigray People’s Liberation Front now contest the authority of the federally backed Interim Administration; analysts warn that internal splits could ignite a fresh insurgency and draw Eritrea back in. In parallel, the Fano militia in Amhara

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